El CNE y Trampa Electoral en Venezuela

Londres 21 de mayo, 2012 | Esta es la clase de iniciativa que todos en Venezuela deberían apoyar. Expertos electorales, es decir, gente que se ha tomado la molestia de investigar y hacerle el seguimiento a los multiples guisos que el caudillo moribundo y su ministerio de elecciones han venido montando desde el 2004, van a exponer en un foro publico los diferentes problemas que confrontan los venezolanos a la hora de votar. El venezolano, o venezolana, que siga creyendo a  estas alturas que los resultados que anuncia el CNE son un reflejo de la realidad, de tal y como vota la gente, esta meando fuera del perol, y ni siquiera está salpicando p'adentro. 


Seria interesante saber si Ramon Guillermo Aveledo, quien le mintio descaradamente al pais en una entrevista en Globovisión diciendo que el sistema electoral dizque "había sido suficientemente auditado", va a asistir a este foro (ninguno de mis contactos en Venezuela, ni de los de mis colegas blogueros, están al tanto de la supuestas auditorias que la MUD habría hecho según lo que dice Aveledo). Asistirán otros auto nombrados lideres de la MUD? O seguirán en la farsa que propugna que las elecciones en Venezuela no son sino lo que decide Chavez? Amanecera y veremos... Mientras tanto, el que pueda leer, que se vaya enterando.

RESUMEN Fraude Electoral Venezuela

Triunfo de Maldonado en la F1: fracaso de PDVSA y Venezuela

Londres 13.05.12 | Pastor Maldonado acaba de ganar el Gran Premio de España, celebrado en el Circuit de Catalunya. Maldonado es el primer venezolano en la historia que logra un triunfo en la Formula 1. Si el arribo de Maldonado al equipo Williams de Formula 1 hubiese sido por sus meritos como piloto, la victoria de hoy fuese, sin duda, causa de celebración para todos los venezolanos. Pero no es ese el caso, puesto que Maldonado no llego a Williams F1 como lo hizo Nico Rosberg anteriormente al mismo equipo, o como Paul Di Resta a Force India, o Roman Grosjean a Lotus, u otros ejemplos de jóvenes pilotos provenientes de la formula inferior GP2 que se han ganado a punta de talento oportunidades en la Formula 1. No, Maldonado llego con una bola de billete que, en primer lugar, pertenece a todos los venezolanos; y en segundo lugar, fue aprobada ilegalmente por el regimen del dictador moribundo. Allí, y solo allí, reside el meollo del asunto.

Es claro que para la clase política venezolana, tanto chavista como de oposición, la victoria de Maldonado es motivo de regocijo, buena razón para visitar el orgullo patrio y absurdos sentimientos chovinistas.

El líder de oposición y aspirante a la presidencia de Venezuela felicitó a Maldonado, lo llamó "grande", mientras que Leopoldo Lopez le mando felicitaciones, y Pablo Perez, otros de los líderes, celebro la entrada de Maldonado en la historia de la Formula 1.

Cuál es el mensaje que los líderes de oposición le están enviando al país, habida cuenta de los muchos millones de dólares que le ha costado a PDVSA el patrocinio a Maldonado? El mensaje es claro, en mi opinión: el robo de los dineros públicos del erario venezolano no inmuta en lo más mínimo a los políticos venezolanos. Al contrario, logros obtenidos a través de la apropiación indebida de los recursos del estado son causa de orgullo, y dignos de celebración.

No hace mucho publiqué en este mismo espacio una supuesta factura que Williams F1 le habría enviado a PDVSA. Para el año 2012, el monto del patrocinio es de 29,4 millones de libras esterlinas. En Venezuela, país con una red de infraestructura prácticamente destruida, con unos niveles de pobreza y falta de educación alarmantes, ese monto bien podría haber sido utilizado en proyectos que aportasen soluciones a miles de venezolanos. Pero no. Los dineros fueron utilizados en aventuras vanas. En el país que se dice gobernado por un régimen socialista ejemplar, vemos como millones de dólares son desperdiciados en patrocinios de pilotos y equipos de Formula 1, el deporte menos socialista de todos y uno que no le aporta ni 1 dólar de rédito a PDVSA.

Pero lo más exasperante es la inmoralidad absoluta de los dizque líderes de oposición, quienes expresan sin ninguna compunción sus mejores deseos a un deportista que se ha hecho gracias al mal gasto, a la corrupción galopante, a las decisiones unilaterales de un caudillo que nadie se atreve a cuestionar, a pesar de ser violadoras de todas las leyes relacionadas al respecto. Ese es el país, esos son los líderes del futuro, esos son los deportistas... Que asco de gente, y que vergüenza pertenecer a ese gentilicio. Cada pueblo tiene el gobierno que se merece. Nunca mas cierto que en el caso de Venezuela.

Hugo Chavez ordeno a juez fallar a favor de Miguel Angel Capriles Lopez

Miguel Angel Capriles Lopez (Michu)

Actualizado 14 mayo 2012 | Hace años publiqué en vcrisis una entrevista a Miguel Angel Capriles Cannizzaro, sobre el fraude realizado en VADESA, grupo de empresas propiedad de Miguel Angel Capriles Ayala. Una de las compañías mas conocidas de dicho grupo es la Cadena Capriles, propietaria del diario de mayor circulación en Venezuela: Ultimas Noticias. Según los hechos relatados, Miguel Angel Capriles Lopez (alias Michu), y la familia Capriles Lopez, se hicieron del control de Vadesa de forma fraudulenta. Una vez hecho esto, los Capriles Lopez, liderados por Michu, se han robado unos 650 millones de dólares de ese grupo de empresas, a través de retiros y/o transferencias de millones de dólares depositados en diferentes cuentas bancarias, y de la venta fraudulenta del 13.6% de las acciones de la Electricidad de Caracas que eran propiedad de Vadesa. Los temores de Capriles Cannizzaro sobre la posible venta del paquete accionario del Banco Mercantil que VADESA poseía parecen bien fundados.

Cual seria mi sorpresa cuando vi el video de Velásquez Alvaray (a partir del minuto 13:35), en el cual el ex magistrado del Tribunal Supremo de Justicia dice haber recibido una llamada de Hugo Chavez ordenándole que fallase a favor de los Capriles Lopez en el caso descrito. Ultimas Noticias, vale recordar, es el periodico de mayor tiraje en Venezuela. Ultimas Noticias imprime, según  Capriles Cannizzaro, el 80% de la propaganda del regimen chavista en medio impresos. Será interesante ver cómo, y si, cambia la linea editorial de Ultimas Noticias, ahora que Henrique Capriles Radonsky -primo de Miguel Angel Capriles Lopez- es el candidato de oposición que supuestamente enfrentara a Hugo Chavez en las elecciones de Octubre, ya que para el Michu el dinero está por encima de consideraciones familiares.

Nota agregada 14 mayo 2012: nos escribe Miguel Angel Capriles Cannizzaro para aclarar que la denuncia de Velásquez Alvaray suena hipócrita, considerando que, mientras fue Director de la Magistratura del Tribunal Supremo de Justicia, Velásquez Alvaray compro el Edificio Provincial, a traves de una negociación llevada a cabo por Armando "Pelón" Capriles en representación de VADESA. Un sobre precio mil millonario -del que Velásquez Alvaray ha debido beneficiarse según Capriles Cannizzaro- caracterizó dicha compra, la cual se concreto por la cantidad de 32.307 millones de bolívares en agosto de 2005.

Armando Capriles (VADESA) vende Edificio Provincial a Luis Velasquez Alvaray

Venezuela enters the twilight zone

London, 3.5.12 | The following is a series of stories I have heard in the last few days, and some thoughts, that signal that Venezuela is well and truly in the twilight zone. How long will it be in it, and how will it exit, continues to be anyone's guess.

• Eladio Aponte Aponte. Former chief of Venezuela's Supreme Court Penal chamber started negotiating his freedom in 2010, soon after the arrest of Walid Makled in Colombia. The first meeting he had with US law enforcement authorities (FBI) was in Spain. Recently, he escaped to Costa Rica, via Curazao, and from there the DEA took him to the US via Puerto Rico. There were fears that his life and freedom were in peril, after US authorities got wind that chavistas and Cuban G2s were dispatched to Costa Rica to get him before the yanks. Two high officials of the Chavez regime have helped Aponte Aponte all along: Jorge Luis Garcia Carneiro, current Governor of Vargas State, military man of unquestionable loyalty to Chavez, and Isaias Rodriguez, current Ambassador of Chavez in Italy.

• Another heavily compromised former chavista is about to confirm Aponte Aponte statements implicating the Chavez regime with drug trafficking. Nelson Bocaranda mentioned in today's article that the next former high official to appear singing in Eligio Cedeño's SoiTV is Luis Velásquez Alvaray, former chief of Venezuela's Supreme Court's Constitutional chamber. Velásquez Alvaray's statements could, potentially, armour plate the case against Chavez and his narcogenerals, which is what US law enforcement authorities want. Another name being mentioned is that of Hugo Carvajal, former chief of military intelligence (DIM). Feasibility to bring out of Venezuela other potential sources -close to Aponte Aponte- are being explored. 

• There is a very odd, and quite inexplicable, Venezuela-related disinformation campaign going on in Washington DC. A group, formed by Roger Noriega, former Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs under Bush, and Venezuelan citizens Martin Rodil, Esteban Gerbasi, Alberto Federico Ravel, and most probably the latter's partners Guillermo Zuloaga and Nelson Mezerhane funding the operation, have been talking to everyone willing to listen about information -which they claim they possess but haven't shown- that establishes links between Venezuela and Iran in uranium prospecting and exports (from Venezuela to Iran), joint Venezuela - Iran construction of missile base in Paraguana, involvement in Aponte Aponte's escape to Costa Rica and then to the US, involvement in getting US law enforcement agencies to deal with Aponte Aponte, and accusations against Venezuelan political refugee Eligio Cedeño in drug trafficking activities. The problem, for the group mentioned, is one of credibility, for to this date, individually or collectively, they have not shown one single piece of verifiable evidence to back up the claims listed above. Noriega, who had an important job under Bush and never gave a second thought to Venezuela, is pitching his unsubstantiated information to many a media outlet, information that, presumably, he is getting from Rodil, Gerbasi and Ravel. Eligio Cedeño has found himself at the receiving end of Noriega's sudden interest in Venezuela. It may be because Cedeño is the one who's been helping Aponte Aponte all along. It may be because Aponte Aponte came out of the chavista judiciary closet in an interview published by SoiTV, a company owned by Cedeño. It may because Cedeño has much better intel, of the goings on the chavista side, and has used it more effectively. It may be because there's a culebra between older Venezuelan money (Ravel, Zuloaga and Mezerhane) and Cedeño's Boliburgeoise fortune. It may be because Cedeño has long been a benefactor of politicos that may be disliked by the group led by Noriega. It may be because the Noriega group is jockeying for position in a future administration and Cedeño's efforts are exposing them as figures of ridicule. It may be because Cedeño has retained the counsel of Otto Reich, whom I am told Noriega despises with passion. Or it may be because Noriega et al are bunch of hapless idiots that are watching in dismay how Cedeño is outsmarting their every move. In any case, whether one or a combination or yet other reasons not mentioned are the true motives, Venezuela observers should be well advised in taking anything that comes from Roger Noriega and his informers with a rock of salt, unless, of course, he starts backing his claims with evidence.

• Junta. In his latest visit to Venezuela, the dying dictator appointed a bunch of unconditional fanatics to form a Council of State, read a Junta that, presumably, will rule Venezuela upon Chavez's death. The Junta is led by Elias Jaua and composed, mostly, by civilians. It remains to be seen how the equally radical fanatics on the military, led by Diosdado Cabello and other narcogenerals, will take this. This is not to say that the Junta is toothless. It is most probably well sourced with Cuban intelligence operatives, G2, factions within the army and urban militias. It is not lost, on some of us, that Jaua still works closely with Goizeder Odriozola and her ETA terrorist husband Arturo Cubillas, who has been accused of training both chavista militias and FARC terrorists. 

• The opposition. As all these events rapidly unfold, the opposition is nowhere to be seen. The one doing something -Henrique Capriles Radonsky- has launched a presidential campaign, as if nothing is happening and presidential elections will take place on 7 October, as scheduled. Confirming earlier analysis, to the effect that in a power struggle among chavista factions there's absolutely nothing the opposition could do, but watch, Capriles Radonsky's name doesn't even get mentioned in conversations about Venezuela, and its immediate future after Chavez's death. Neither Capriles Radonsky nor any of the leading figures of the MUD have any political, military, or financial muscle to claim a place among the warring chavista factions, mere passengers in a speeding bus out of control. Capriles Radonsky's best bet, and only hope, is that Chavez decides to run, and so he can get on with the business of pretending to be the opposition's presidential candidate that will confront the dictator on 7 October. Should something happen to Chavez before then, as it seems to be more and more likely, it is doubtful that Capriles Radonsky will have any relevant role, or say, in the aftermath, until a clearer picture of who will rule on behalf of Chavez emerges. Should Chavez die before 7 October it is very unlikely that there'll be presidential "elections", as scheduled.

Hugo Chavez: the 'popular' dictator

"Social Expenditure" of the Chavez regime funded by PDVSA: 

in blue, funds that have gone through Venezuela's Treasury; 

in red, as per Hugo Chavez's orders, funds spent  directly by 

PDVSA. Source Caracas Chronicles.

London 2.5.12 | A recent post by Francisco Toro at Caracas Chronicles brought back from memory a conversation I had not long ago: “But you can’t deny that Chavez is an extremely popular politician, can you?” quipped the former UK Ambassador to Venezuela to me in a meeting. “Of course he’s popular, you give me the opportunity to spend the kind of money Chavez spends, without oversight, and I too can become Venezuela’s most popular politician, even a mentally retarded bloke would become popular with that kind of money!” I replied.

Using PDVSA's own numbers, Francisco has calculated how much money has Chavez spent the regular way, read monies transferred from PDVSA to Venezuela's Treasury via taxes, royalties and dividends (Zanahoria Contribution in the graph), versus how much money has the dictator spent at his sole and absolute discretion, read funds PDVSA spends directly upon receiving orders from Chavez. It is worth citing Francisco:

You’ll search high and low in Venezuela’s 1999 constitution for PDVSA’s right to spend money this way. In the polite fictions of Bolivarian constitutional doctrine, Venezuela operates under the principle of a “Unified Treasury” – all funds paid to the state are meant to go into a single pot. Once there, elected representatives in the National Assembly have to give explicit permission, through a budget law, before the government is allowed to spend any of it.

That obviously can’t happen if PDVSA skips the whole parliamentary rigamarole and starts spending money on whatever the president orders that day. Which, more and more, is what actually happens.

But it gets worse: more and more "social spending" is being done the Chavez way, that is bypassing any constitutionally mandated oversight mechanism, so much so that, according to Francisco's calculation based on PDVSA own numbers, "for every petrodollar spent under legislative oversight" in Venezuela $2.08 are spent outside approved budget, as per Chavez's direct and absolute discretionary orders.

Source: Caracas Chronicles.

Better to borrow again from Francisco:


As recently as 2009, just 24 petrocents were spent without legislative approval for every petrodollar spent under legislative oversight. Last year, that proportion had jumped to 2.08 to 1.


Which is why I can say, with scientific precision, that today we are 8.7 times more Petrocaudillistic than we were three years ago.

Source: Caracas Chronicles.

And it gets worse still: since 2001, Hugo Chavez has been able to spend, freely without any oversight or accountability, $123.1 billion. No, it is not a mistake. Add the numbers of the graph on the left, and, voilá, $123.1 billion. In addition to regular spending in the form of official freebies, known as misiones, which are basically vote buying, political-loyalty programs devised by Chavez to keep his 'popularity levels' very high. All this money considered, the size of the failure of the Chavez administration is, sadly, just too big: whether it's housing, inflation -the highest in Latin America, poverty, employment, or crime levels, his 'revolution' has only fiascos to show for.

Therefore I challenge any of the many analysts who have an opinion on Chavez's 'popularity' to provide an example (just one) of another politician in Venezuela's contemporary history, or anywhere else for that matter, with the spending power that the Venezuelan dictator has enjoyed in the last decade. I hear Gaddafi and Libya, the Saudi autocrats, Putin... all truly 'popular' petrodictators democratic leaders. And this is why Venezuela's opposition simply can't mount a half coherent platform against Chavez: the bloody thug just has too much money at his disposal, and has been able to co-opt just about everybody, and in politics, whether it's Venezuela or the US, money talks and bullshit walks.

Fortunately, this disgrace of a caudillo will die soon enough in the care of communist medicine, and then... Then things are only going to get even worse, hopefully for just a while, though how long is anyone's guess.