Maduro's win will mean chavismo is here to stay

When trying to rationalise Hugo Chavez and his impact on Venezuelan politics, it is often said that the leader he resembled the most was Argentina's Juan Domingo Perón. Upon the death of the standard bearer of Latin American populism, peronismo took hold of political life in Argentina, on the back of the hugely popular Evita, who was exalted to demigod status in popular culture. More than fifty years later, that country is still dealing with the nefarious consequences of an irresponsible political establishment crafted by Perón. But as much as Chavez has been compared to Perón, chavismo's Evita died on 5th of March. So what will happen?

Chavismo seemed, until recently, to be a unipersonal enterprise, a political movement based solely on the whimsical designs of a caudillo, who spent a lifetime conspiring against the establishment and, once in power, ensured that no Evita could cast a shadow. Surrounded by incompetent and hapless yesmen, Chavez's continuity was guaranteed by a unique combination of charisma, a deep and personal connection to the impoverished masses, a laissez faire stance towards hugely corrupt collaborators and, above all, an endless supply of money which he used unrestrictedly and without oversight. Nicolas Maduro, who only has the latter, has demonstrated, should he win*, that contrary to conventional wisdom, there is life in chavismo after Chavez. It was not a house of cards.

Maduro's win in Sunday's presidential election will provide fresh evidence that Venezuela is a basket case. Lacking in charisma, political nous and oratory skills, but elected on empathy for the late caudillo and his ways, Maduro has perhaps the thing that matters the most in current Venezuelan politics: unfettered access to State resources. While Henrique Capriles Radonsky, the soon to be twice-defeated opposition candidate, has had to run his campaign on a shoestring and could not accept funds from the shrinking and debilitated private sector, Maduro has the unrestrained backing of Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), or to put it in numbers, access to a kitty that gets -give or take- $250 million every single day. With that, charisma and popularity can be dispensed.

Capriles decided this time to launch a confrontational campaign. As much as his message appears to have resonated and energised his supporters, fact is no amount of heated rhetoric could undo chavismo's pile of cash, whose victory will signal that a clear majority much rather had a spend drift government than one that would bring an end to irresponsible populism. It is the affirmation that Hugo Chavez's manner of governing, i.e. populism, continues to be the choice of the majority. Between intangible promises from Capriles and hard cold cash from Chavez, or whoever his successors are, Venezuelans have little to think about. That's a reality that is not going to go away.

In 1845, a prescient Argentinean called Domingo Sarmiento wrote a book depicting the struggle between civilisation and barbarism (Facundo: Civilización y Barbarie). The history of his country, as much as ours, has been a mise-en-scene of the conflict between enlightened but ever so unsuccessful notions of nation building and identity and caudillo regimes, under whose rule development takes one step forward and ten back. Will Venezuela become the next Argentina? Will a more radical military Junta kick chavismo -as represented by Maduro- out?  Early to say. It would be safe to predict however, that as long as chavismo controls the State and its resources, it can field any candidate in the certainty that barbarism's continuity won't be affected. That's a daunting prospect indeed. 

*Jesse Chacon runs a polling company called GIS XXI. In last October's presidential elections he predicted Chavez would win by 55.1%. The caudillo got 54.8%. His prediction was closer than that of all other pollsters from Venezuela. Chacon is now predicting that Maduro is going to win with 55.3%, and calculates abstention to be between 26-22%. Chacon has an edge over all other pollsters in Venezuela: he is a former minister and old trusted man of Hugo Chavez, and keeps, to this day, very close connections with top chavistas.

Thatcher's death highlights hypocrisy and racism of the Left

London - Former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher died yesterday. Her achievements are too long to list here, but I guess for me, the most important one, by a mile, was to have significantly contributed to bring communism down. For me, a guest in this country after all, it is the perfect opportunity to contrast how death of a phenomenal political leader is dealt with by Brits. When Hugo Chavez died over a month ago, various BBC programs called to request my comment. The utter shock of BBC staff upon hearing that I was somewhat joyful upon learning about Hugo Chavez's death was something to behold. The accusatory silence and recriminatory gazes that followed my comment were quite uncomfortable and I had to explain the reasons why I was in such mood.

But contrast that with the passing of Thatcher. In the last day or so a battery of Thatcher critics have been given tribune on all British media outlets, and they, let me inform you dear readers, have not had the slightest remorse, the flimsiest compunction to express, quite angrily in some cases, that they are overjoyed by Thatcher's death. The interesting thing is that such stances did not cause any negative reaction on the part of interviewers / moderators, no disapproving looks, no odd silence, nothing, a stance not only well accepted but encouraged and shared by most of the ever so left leaning British media.

Expressing blinding hatred for Margaret Thatcher is perfectly fine, but criticism of Hugo Chavez is met with disapproval.

And the above brings me to highlight not only the sheer hypocrisy of the Left, but its racism, embodied by postures that on the one hand condemn any joy of Chavez's passing, and on the other see no problem in expressing more radical views on Thatcher's death. It's OK to hate Thatcher, to wish her death, to be disheartened by the IRA's failing to assassinate her while hearing terrorist Gerry Adams give his "verdict" on her legacy. But woe the one who dares to say that Chavez's death is actually a very good thing for Venezuelan democracy. The majority of the Left in this country seems impervious to such impossible-to-reconcile positions, but then again, the Left was never something characterised by consistency and principles, was it?

#yosoyvenezolano

Londres - Para quienes andan buscando entender lucida y coherentemente el tag #YoSoyVenezolano recomiendo lo siguiente:

1. Ver entrevista a Yoani Sanchez por Jaime Bayly.
2. Leer Cubanos y punto, de Yoani, suplantando cubanos por venezolanos y Jose Marti por el venezolano/a insigne de preferencia.
3. Ver intervención de Gladys Ibarra en el encuentro de artistas por Capriles.

Una vez seguidos los pasos anteriores, hasta los escépticos como yo recobran la esperanza. Las palabras de Yoani y Gladys, dichas o escritas, son de un contundente, que es prácticamente imposible rebatirlas. Me identifico, con el sentimiento genuino y sincero de ambas, la una diciendo que es cubana de Jose Marti, y la otra defendiendo sus opiniones (como si tal debiera defenderse), sacando su cédula y diciendo "yo soy venezolana." Vivimos tiempos de propaganda, de ruido, de paja, de politicos sin espina, de gente amoral, de medios y periodistas plegados al mejor postor, de instituciones huecas, y sociedades plásticas, y dentro de esa voragine, en la cual escasean voces sensatas, estas dos mujeres, plantadas en la más demoledora verdad pero expresandola humildemente, timidamente, sin inflexiones altisonantes, desarman cualquier argumento que quienes abdicaron de su libre albedrío puedan producir.

Me identifico con Gladys, me identifico con su argumento sobre cuan difícil es labrarse un espacio en sociedades que uno no conoce, en idiomas que uno aprendió de adulto, sin abandonar en el camino el amor por lo de uno, por la tierra de uno, sin adoptar actitudes mezquinas para con los de uno, para luego encontrarse en la surreal situación de tener que defender, entre los nuestros,  opiniones, o posturas, por que uno ya no vive en el patio. 

Me identifico con Yoani, cuando dice que a pesar de haber estado ya radicada en Suiza, en realidad seguía viviendo en Cuba. Seguía pensando en Cuba. Seguía viendo a Cuba, en todas sus interacciones diarias. Eso no le pasa sólo a ella, nos pasa a todos los que hemos emigrado, y los que nos critican es por que no han emigrado, no saben de lo que hablan, por que no han sentido en carne propia lo que es sentirse desterrado.

Me llena de esperanza oir las voces de Yoani y Gladys, y me digo "no todo está perdido cuando mujeres como esas están entre nosotros." Estas mujeres, y no Diosa Canales, deberían ser los estandartes de nuestras sociedades, nuestros bastiones morales, nuestras guías. Estas mujeres deberían ser el rol que todas las que sigan deberían tratar de emular, ya que ello pondría fin, de una vez por todas, a la incesante proliferación de perfectos idiotas latinomericanos como el difunto o su ídolo cubano.

Estas mujeres, mejor que nadie, pueden incidir de forma positiva en la creación de una nueva identidad, pueden modelar según sus cánones morales el significado de #yosoyvenezolano. Un poder extraordinario del cual disponen que, sin duda, nos llevará al respeto, a la dignidad, y al progreso.

Yoani dice que ella sueña con una nueva Cuba en la cual el gobierno sea un apéndice de la sociedad, y no un ente omnipresente y totalitario. Cómo no estar de acuerdo con eso? Venezuela, esa por la que llora Gladys, somos todos, no hay clases de venezolanos, más o menos dignos, más o menos venezolanos. En #yosoyvenezolano cabemos todos. Hasta los difuntos...

How about Venezuela in Offshore & Money Laundering ICIJ?

London - The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists published reports today, under the banner of "Secrecy for Sale: Inside the Global Offshore Money Maze". I must say that I welcome such efforts in exposing the multibillion dollar industry behind illegal movement of stolen public funds. It is an industry that has no territorial boundaries, or jurisdictional impediments of any sort. Despite prevalent Anti Money Laundering (AML) legislation in most of the developed world, the fact is, the world's "most reputed banks" have been, and are, ear-deep in money laundering and eager to continue circumventing laws to partake in the thriving business.

But when it comes to Venezuela, there's precious little in the way of investigations by non-Venezuelan investigative journalists. It may be due to the country being irrelevant, in the great scheme of things, but after more than a trillion dollars worth of income in the last decade, which has allowed for multibillion dollar scams, how come no one -apart from a handful of lone voices- seems interested in mapping out the enormous corruption racket going on?

To help future research, I am posting here some names and pictures that, I am sure, will surface in offshore investigations should well resourced organisations decide to focus its attention in that corner of the world.

Oswaldo Cisneros

UPDATE: after posting this, ICIJ published a piece on the ponzi scheme set up by Francisco Illarramendi in the US. Nothing new really, as information about that case has been in the public domain for a long while. In fact, it would be interesting to question the evident conflict of interests of FTI Consulting (one stop shop for all Boligarchs reputation management issues) with the receiver. The interesting thing is that ICIJ is mentioning a big name in the article: Oswaldo Cisneros. The other Cisneros, Gustavo Cisneros, owns a cesspit. It will be interesting to see whether ICIJ has what it takes to enter those rabbit holes...

Bribes in Ferrominera Orinoco's iron ore sales

From: Patrick Hodgins

To: CAÑAS L. JORGE L. / FMO 3142: canas.jorge@gmail.com

Sent: Wednesday, July 11, 2007, 6:11 AM

Subject: RE: Iron request for China

George,

First let me thank you for your patients in this matter , the chinese have been very hard in their negotiations, however we can revert with the following counter for your perusal.

We accept as per your Offer below and i thank you for your efforts in getting this far, we there for counter with the following:

1) Quantity:

a) 2007 Contractual Year: Nine (9) shipments of 70,000 MT +/- 10% MOLOO each (“Panamax” size vessels).

b) 2008 Contractual Year: Seven (7) shipments of 130,000 MT +/- 10% MOLOO each (“Cape” size vessels) or in Buyers options capes to be split into panamax (14) 70,000MT +/- 10%moloo.

2) Quality:

a) Ferrominera Sinter Feed (FSF2007), as per the specifications previously provided to you.

b) San Isidro Calibrated Lump Ore (SICLO-1), as per the specifications previously provided to you.

3) Delivery Period:

a) 2007 Contractual Year: Nine (9) shipments, as per point 1a above, from August 1^st, 2007 until April 30^th, 2008.

The above was replied by the following email:

Panamax Bulk AS

Fra: Freddy A Castellanos [fcsenior57@hotmail.com]

Sendt: 11. juli 2007 16:43

Til: Patrick Hodgins

Kopi: Panamax Bulk

Emne: Re: Iron request for China

Patrick,

Thank you for the blind copy. Now, Jorge will reply to you as per the terms we have agreed but with the prices that will appear in the contract between FMO and you (either Crown Venture of Juhua Group). As per the discussions I have maintained with Jorge, FMO will have following FOB prices in the contract:

FSF2007: US Cents 69.54/DMTU

SICLO-1: US Cents 86.55/DMTU

As also agreed, the difference between above prices and those agreed between us (FSF2007: US Cents 75.00/DMTU and SICLO-1: US Cents 92.00/DMTU) together with the 1.5% (of the FOB value of shipments) commission for buyer, which will be included in the sales contract to be signed, will be for FMO's people who got the material and will approve the deal. I am sending on a separate message a draft of contract to be signed between Crown Venture and me concerning this issue.

Finally, I thank you for your efforts on successfully concluding this negotiations.

Kind regards,

Freddy Castellanos

The above is quite self explanatory, but to put it in context, actors must be identified.

As per his LinkedIn page, Patrick Hodgins is meant to be an Australian shipping executive that has worked in the past for Rio Tinto, Freight Investors Services, Fortescue Metals Group, and Nidera. At time of emails, Hodgins was with Australia's Fortescue Metals Group.

Jorge Cañas (Vzla ID no. 8.540.342) is quoted as being Sales Manager (Gerente de Comercializacion) of Venezuela's iron producer Ferrominera del Orinoco (FMO).

Freddy Castellanos (Vzla ID no. 4.883.936) is a metallurgic engineer, who worked for FMO until August of 2003 [see here].

Crown Venture claims to be a “global trading company being registered and having offices in Hong Kong, Singapore, Oslo and Caracas.” There's a Crown Venture Limited registered in Hong Kong (company number 1128011). It is a HKD 10,000 capital company (wholly owned by Singapore’s Amoy Trading PTE. Limited), whose director is Cook Island's based CV Services Limited [see here]. Crown Venture also has a record in Oslo (no. 995 957 086), where it appears as one of a number of subsidiaries of Hjalmar Røed & Co AS, owned / operated by Morten Frode Riis, whose other subsidiary Panamax Bulk AS was declared bankrupt. Unsurprisingly, Panamax Bulk AS and Crown Venture are registered at the same address in Oslo. There is no record of Crown Venture in Venezuela's registers.

Juhua Group, is China's Zhejiang province largest chemical industry.

In another communication, Fernando Campbell, Astrup Fearnley of Norway's representative in Caracas is copied. Given that both Panamax Bulk AS and Crown Venture are mere fronts of intermediators, perhaps Astrup Fearnley's Fernando Campbell was drawn in to arrange the maritime side of things. Or perhaps that was Morten Frode Riis's part of the deal.

In any case, just by observing the murky structure leading to Singapore, Hong Kong, Miami, Panama, Australia, Cook Islands, Venezuela and Oslo, one can infer where this is going. In subsequent communications [see here and here], Castellanos instructs Hodgins on what needs to be done for the deal to be completed, as well as requests of Hodgins payment of $2,309,978.92 worth of commissions to be divided among FMO staff and himself.

Payment was to be made to BAC Florida Bank, Account Number: 937-959-820, ABA: 067009044, SWIFT: BFLBUS3M, To the name of: "Societe Partry, S.A." [see here].

Castellanos sent Hodgins, as representative of Crown Venture Ltd, an invoice from Societe Partry SA with a bogus address in Caracas [see here]. Partry is a company registered in Panama, whose proxies Ana Luisa Amengual, Mercedes McCarthy and Francisco Ramirez are directors of hundreds of companies, and all share the same address in Miami, according to records [see here].

A couple of bank transfers (payment of commissions) are evidenced in the leaked documents: one from HSBC Hong Kong, acc. no. 168-313013-838, dated 01/07/2008, to Societe Partry's account in BAC Florida Bank for $426,939; another one dated 24 July 2009, from Crown Venture Limited's account in Singapore's DBS Bank Limited, for $381,571.58.

Castellano's leverage over FMO's commercial decisions is apparent when he writes to Hodgins:

As you see in FMO's message, they are also including the Letter of Authorization for your company to promote and sell FMO's iron ore in the Chinese market this year as well as next year. This will support you in your discussions with Beitai Group and other Chinese mills.

But Hodgins own position is also interesting, considering that at the time he was meant to be working for Fortescue. Was he dealing on the side, or was Fortescue involved in the paying of bribes to Venezuelans in iron ore purchases?

As per Junhua's, well Chinese companies' corruption is rampant and very well known across the world. There is hardly a market corrupt Chinese haven't been able to crack by hook or crook.

And what to make of HSBC's Hong Kong failure to notice Hodgins own dodgy set up, and that of beneficiary of transfers, Societe Partry? In one of the emails, it would appear that at least four transfers in 2008 (dated 01/07, 01/08, 27/08 and 09/10) were made to Castellanos through HSBC (as seen in case of Mexican narcos and many other scandals, HSBC's forte is not precisely strict observance to anti money laundering regulations). In the same email, Metalloyd of London (Reuben bros) is identified as having purchased around 447 metric tonnes of FMO's iron ore between January and July 2008.

I sent emails requesting comment to some of parties involved in this corruption racket. No one has replied. Another case of rampant corruption involving high chavista authorities and foreign companies and individuals only too happy to engage in criminal activities to make a quick buck in Venezuela.